The end of (Stormy) 2022 is coming
October 2022 is bringing with it enhanced degrees of difficulty and uncertainty, the financial climate in general, and especially the high-tech industry is turbulent and unclear.
The beginning of Q4 is usually crunch time for most companies. It was during my tenure at IBM that I took the crash course on this subject. There is no better school for “End of year” strain than the one at a publicly traded company and if it’s an international corporate traded on NASDAQ even better. There is no tomorrow after December 31st.
All the Milestones, releases, demos, POCs that you committed to delivering throughout the year and postponed/forwarded to the next month must be delivered. All 2022 related investments, bonuses, and terminations… are knocking on your door and as always, time and resources’ availability are not your allies.

2022’s end is not business as usual, as in the 1939 “The Wizard of Oz”, Dorothy says to her dog at one point: “Toto, I’ve got a feeling we’re not in Kansas anymore.” Recent management research and publications are addressing the fact that traditional/textbooks/best practices of business strategy (and tactics) are becoming futile once facing the fast pace of change and continuous uncertainty that we’re facing.
October 2022 is bringing with it an enhanced degree of difficulty and uncertainty, the financial climate in general, and especially the high-tech industry is turbulent and unclear. This environment is adding two crucial parameters to the equation. Imminent demand to economize which is corporate slang to cut costs dramatically. The demand to stretch the “runway” is amplified by the second variable which is the lack of visibility to 2023 budgets, information that will enable us to take the necessary actions and investments that will not become obsolete on January the 1st. The new (business) world order requires us to be more agile, resilient, and decisive.
Paving course of action will start with mapping out our situation, starting with our 2022 “commitments” and available resources and transforming them into 2-3 alternative high-level release plans. We should incorporate issues like the order of importance and levels of risk. Once articulated, we will perform a crucial step which is foretelling the worst-case scenario for each alternative. This action will inhibit the Project Planning Fallacy (a common bias that implies, however long you think you need to do a task, you will actually need longer. Regardless of how many times you have done the task before, or how deep your expert knowledge is). In regular times this phenomenon has damaging potential. During Q4, it becomes extremely critical, there will be no overtime after December 31st. The conclusion of the process will include the selection of the optimal release plan and the construction of a detailed release plan (Sprints level).
At this point in time, missions are prioritized and the list of the required resources is established. The first choice is usually diverting resources from less crucial activities, if applicable, great. Nonetheless, we’re required to double-check that we’re not inflicting over “less short-term” (Q1 release dates are right around the corner) for the short-term demand. If this solution isn’t feasible the next step is checking our recruitment pipeline to review whether there are candidates in advanced stages and can be signed in the next week or so. The “usual” challenge with this path is that even if there are potential recruits their notice time plus onboarding duration (30 – 45 days) will prohibit any real Q4 contribution. This year “unusually” there is a chance that there is no open position for recruitment chances are slimmer than regular.
Once internal alternatives are exhausted, we should consider an external team enhancement. To those of you that are puzzled by the inconsistency between “external” and “reduced cost,” the answer is: consider a team that is onboarded ASAP and dismissed at the end of the year. No residual effect on other R&D commitments or recruitment/notice costs. If you want to go the extra mile, you may even consider going offshore. The issue with offshore development at the end of the year is that usually they are one week short at the end of December, one very crucial week. On the other hand, there are hybrid Israeli-offshore solutions that will enable us to attain reduced costs and the additional working week of the 25th.
The team is established, the backlog is set, and the first sprint commenced. There is an additional factor that can increase the probability of success. We should establish process transparency with our team. Maximizing knowledge of the situations and the context will enable the team members to both adapt and step up for the occasion.
At times like these, I recommend embracing the legendary basketball coach and leadership guru, John Wooden’s words of wisdom “Do not let what you cannot do interfere with what you can do”.
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Published by Hanan Zakai
VP Customers & Division Manager @CodeValue



















